Wait, what?
Nebraska?
But isn’t Nebraska a comfortably-red state with just 5 electoral votes? How might the Cornhusker state be pivotal in the upcoming presidential race?
Answer: The winner-take-all system doesn’t apply in Maine and Nebraska because their electoral votes are allocated differently. As a result, this creates scenarios where electoral votes can be divided among multiple candidates, rather than all going to a single winner. These states award two electoral votes to the overall winner of the statewide popular vote, and then one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district within the state (two districts in Maine, three in Nebraska).
For instance, in 2020 former President Donald Trump won Neabrasks’s popular vote and was automatically rewarded with 2 of the state’s 5 electoral votes. And as the winner of Districts 1 and 3, he collected two more electoral votes. However, because then-candidate Joe Biden carried the second district, he was awarded a key electoral vote.
Nebraska’s Total Electoral Votes – 5
Popular vote winner – 2
District 1 winner – 1
District 2 winner – 1
District 3 winner -1
(For those who think Nebraska’s system rewarded Democrats unfairly, the same dynamic worked against them in Maine)
Historically red, Nebraska’s 2nd district flipped blue in a big way in 2020 and could have major implications later this year.
Why?
Biden DOES have a clear path to victory without winning Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, three swing states he carried in 2020; But, he must win D2-Nebraska again to hit the magic number of 270 should his team pursue that strategy.
Rust Belt
While Biden trails Trump in many swing states across the nation, polls consistently show tighter races in the older, whiter Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, three domains Biden carried in 2020. Conversely, Trump holds stronger leads in the swing Sun Belt states won by Biden, largely attributed to Biden’s loss of support among younger voters and voters of color.
“Joe Biden’s path to reelection has become increasingly clear: It’s the Rust Belt or bust,” said journalist Steven Shepard, in an article published by Politico on May 1.
“The alternative route to the White House he appeared to break open in 2020 — winning Arizona and Georgia on the strength of changing Sun Belt demographics — would be far more challenging this time.”
Shepard insists that Biden’s route to victory hinges heavily on winning the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that bedeviled Hillary Clinton in 2016.
However, should he carry the Rust Belt states but lose traditionally red D2-Nebraska, the race could end in an electoral tie with both candidates having 268 electoral votes. And in that scenario, the election would be decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) would be needed to win and Trump would have a clear advantage.
Perhaps Biden’s team should squarely focus on the low-hanging fruit in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin… And, yes, in D2-Nebraska where he defeated Trump by a whopping 7 percentage points in 2020.
Nevertheless, Biden’s campaign continues to invest in advertising across a core set of seven states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. So while Biden’s team recognizes the importance of the Rust Belt, he is not disregarding the Sun Belt in his electoral strategy.
“Biden isn’t yet writing off the Sun Belt,” Shepard reports. “His campaign continues to advertise in the same core, seven states it’s targeted for months: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
My 2 Cents
Biden’s team shouldn’t spend much time in North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. They should put most of their efforts into winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, D2-Nebraska, and Nevada.
If Biden carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin again, Nebraska’s D2 electoral vote could be the difference between winning and losing.
