So, most national polls have former President Trump leading current President Biden by anywhere from 2 to 4 points.
While those surveys are relevant, national polls are for lightweights. Let’s not forget Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 2.1 percentage points in 2016 but still lost the electoral college.
Fact: A presidential candidate who has run a savvy campaign could conceivably lose the popular vote by as many as 5 to 10 percentage points (or 20 million votes) but still win the election via the electoral college.
What REALLY MATTERS are the polls in the swing states because the rest of America is fairly predictable. Today, the swing states are Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
In order to make a political comeback and regain control of the White House, Former President Donald Trump would have to win back three states that President Biden secured in the 2020 election. According to recent CNN battleground state polls, it appears that Trump would be well on his way to achieving this goal if the election were held today.
Here’s a summary of the key points:
Electoral College Focus: While national polls may show dissatisfaction with both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the key to winning the 2024 election lies in battleground states, specifically Georgia and Michigan.
Trump’s Potential Path to Victory: To secure a return to the White House, Donald Trump would need to flip three states that Joe Biden won in 2020. Hence, if Trump can win Georgia and Michigan, he would only need to win one more battleground state, such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
Legal Issues for Trump: Trump faces legal challenges, including federal and state charges related to election subversion, mishandling classified material, and charges in New York related to hush-money payments. However, these legal challenges have not significantly impacted his political standing.
Georgia Trial and Public Opinion: Trump could go on trial in Georgia for 2020 election interference, but at the moment, he maintains a lead in the state among registered voters. However, a significant portion of voters support the charges against him.
In the latest Georgia Trump vs. Biden poll, Trump leads by 5. And Trump leads by 5.4 percent in the Peachtree State in a Real Clear Politics overall average of recent polls conducted by reputable pollsters.
Michigan Polling: In Michigan, Trump is polling at 50% compared to Biden’s 40 in the latest CNN poll.
If you’re the Biden campaign, that 10-point difference should make you very concerned. EMERGENCY. While it’s very unlikely Trump will win by that margin, a 10-point lead certainly suggests he’s up by 2,3, or even 4 points in Michigan.
And Trump leads by 4.1 percent in Michigan in a Real Clear Politics overall average of recent polls conducted by reputable pollsters.
Arizona Polling: The latest poll by Noble Predictive Insights has Trump ahead by a bloodcurdling 8 points. And Trump leads by 4.8 percent there in the Real Clear Politics overall average of recent polls conducted by reputable pollsters.
Nevada Polling: The latest poll by Bloomberg/MrnConsult, released November 8, had Trump ahead by 3. Of greater significance, the former president is ahead there by a sturdy 4 points in the Real Clear Politics overall average of recent polls conducted by reputable pollsters.
Pennsylvania polling: In the latest Biden vs Trump Bloomberg/MrnConsult poll, Trump leads by 3. And Trump leads by 1.5 percent there in the Real Clear Politics overall average of recent polls conducted by reputable pollsters.
Wisconsin polling: In the latest Biden vs Trump Bloomberg/MrnConsult poll, Trump leads by 1. However, Biden leads by 0.7 percent in an overall tally of the most recent polls from reputable pollsters.
Biden’s Challenges: Biden will need to work to maintain the diverse coalition of voters that helped him win Georgia in 2020. While polls suggest he has work to do, the Biden campaign is mobilizing its supporters.
2022 Midterm Comparison: Democrats’ ability to outperform polling in the 2022 midterm election is mentioned as a potential source of hope for Biden’s supporters.
Trump’s Appeal to Non-Voters: Trump’s lead in Georgia and Michigan is partly attributed to the support of voters who did not participate in the 2020 election. These non-voters seem to be leaning toward Trump for the 2024 election. Will they vote in 2024?
Fringe candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr could very well be a Biden spoiler just as Ross Perot’s candidacy bedeviled former President George H.W. Bush in 1992.
Biden’s Campaign Strategy: Biden is increasing his visits to battleground states, like Pennsylvania, as he prepares for the 2024 campaign, which is expected to hinge on a small number of voters in specific states.
Don’t be surprised if Trump fails to win the popular vote. In fact, I’d be stunned if he did. The majority of voters (over 50 percent) don’t like him.
However, at this moment, the 2024 Electoral College math is painting a much rosier picture for him.
In summary, Election 2024 will center around battleground states. And at this moment, Trump would carry Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada – one more state than he’d need to flip the outcome in his favor.
Team Biden has a lot of work to do but if there’s anything they have in their favor it’s time – There’s still close to 11 months until 2024 Election Day.
